Future Socio-Political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: A Common Framework Based on Shared-Socioeconomic-Pathways (SSPs)
نویسندگان
چکیده
It has proven extremely challenging for researchers to predict with confidence how human societies might develop in the future, yet managers and industries need make projections order test adaptation mitigation strategies designed build resilience long-term shocks. This paper introduces exploratory scenarios a particular focus on European aquaculture fisheries describes these were designed. Short-, medium- developments socio-political drivers may be just as important determining profits, revenues prospects physical such climate change. Four socio-political-economic futures developed, based partly IPCC SRES (Special Report Emissions Scenarios) framework newer system of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). ‘Off shelf’ narrative material well quantitative outputs ‘borrowed’ from earlier frameworks but supplemented generated through in-depth stakeholder workshops involving industry policy makers. Workshop participants tasked outline they thought their sector look under four future worlds and, particular, use PESTEL conceptual (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Legal) an aide memoire help define scope each scenario. work was carried out auspices EU Horizon 2020 project CERES (Climate change aquatic RESources), ‘CERES scenario’ (World Markets, National Enterprise, Global Sustainability Local Stewardship), additional generated, including fuel fish prices, using MAGNET (Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool) modeling framework. In developing applying scenarios, we have demonstrated that basic architecture is sufficiently flexible used at wide diversity scales. We urge science community adopt similar framework, around SSPs, facilitate global cross-comparison model more broadly harmonize communication regarding potential bioeconomic impacts
منابع مشابه
Data on fossil fuel availability for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
The data files contain the assumptions and results for the construction of cumulative availability curves for coal, oil and gas for the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The files include the maximum availability (also known as cumulative extraction cost curves) and the assumptions that are applied to construct the SSPs. The data is differentiated into twenty regions. The resulting cumulative...
متن کاملTeaching Political Science in Europe
Thisarticle first reviews the history of political science teaching in Europebefore going on to consider a range of recent developments in the teaching of politicalscience, including cross-national joint programmers; technologically enhancedlearning; placement learning and problem-based learning. The last sectionconsiders a range of issues facing political science teachers, includingfinancial p...
متن کاملA new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways
The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways...
متن کاملa framework for identifying and prioritizing factors affecting customers’ online shopping behavior in iran
the purpose of this study is identifying effective factors which make customers shop online in iran and investigating the importance of discovered factors in online customers’ decision. in the identifying phase, to discover the factors affecting online shopping behavior of customers in iran, the derived reference model summarizing antecedents of online shopping proposed by change et al. was us...
15 صفحه اولذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Frontiers in Marine Science
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2296-7745']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.568219